Elevate Pro-Clima
Integrating the Best Available Science into Climate Action
The Elevate Pro-Clima project, spearheaded by the Centre for Sustainable Development Law and Policy (CSDLP) at Durham University, represents a critical intersection between climate science and international environmental law. As we approach crucial milestones in global climate governance, this initiative focuses on bridging the gap between scientific consensus and actionable, legally sound climate policies.
Read the full report Visit the CSDLPWhat are Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)?
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are the heart of the Paris Agreement. They are self-defined national climate action plans outlining how each country will reduce its greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate impacts. Countries are required to update their NDCs every five years, with each submission reflecting a progression in ambition to incrementally close the gap toward the 1.5°C goal.
A Brief History: From Kyoto to Paris
To understand the current framework of international climate law, it is essential to look at its evolution:
- The Kyoto Protocol (1997): This was the first major international treaty to mandate greenhouse gas emissions reductions. However, it only placed binding targets on developed nations, relying on mechanisms like the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to fund projects in developing countries. Its limited scope ultimately hindered its global effectiveness.
- The Paris Agreement (2015): The UNFCCC’s Paris Agreement marked a historic shift by requiring all nations—developed and developing—to commit to climate action. Its overarching goal is to limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels. Instead of top-down mandates, it relies on a bottom-up approach driven by national commitments.
The Role of the “Best Available Science”
At the core of the Elevate Pro-Clima report is the imperative to embed the “best available science” into legal and policy frameworks, specifically evidence provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This integration is no longer just a recommendation; it is a foundational requirement for operationalizing climate obligations.
Evidentiary Foundation
The report assesses how scientific evidence is gradually integrated into national and international policy.
Highest Possible Ambition (HPA)
Best available science dictates the legal and scientific indicators necessary to assess whether state policies align with the HPA requirement outlined in Article 4(3) of the Paris Agreement.
Judicial and Policy Alignment
Translating complex climate science into digestible, legally actionable concepts ensures that courts and policymakers can accurately weigh factual evidence when enforcing the duty to prevent harm to the climate system.
A Scientific Process for Classification
One of the most complex challenges in climate law is classifying and standardizing state commitments to ensure they are both ambitious and credible. The report outlines a rigorous process for the classification of NDCs following the Global Stocktake:
Legal Nature of NDCs
Rather than viewing NDCs merely as self-determined promises, the science-informed classification process categorizes them as “prescribed qualified unilateral acts” under international law.
Obligations of Means vs. Results
By applying scientific indicators, the process helps classify whether a state’s specific climate actions represent an obligation of conduct (the effort made) or an obligation of result (the actual emissions reduced).
Iterative Qualification
The Global Stocktake serves as a central oversight mechanism. Through this process, the scientific realities of global warming strictly qualify and shape the procedural rules and content of subsequent NDCs.
Navigating Carbon Markets: Article 6 Explained
To achieve these ambitious NDC targets cost-effectively, Article 6 of the Paris Agreement establishes a framework for voluntary international cooperation through carbon markets. It ensures that emissions reductions are not double-counted between nations.
Article 6.2 (Bilateral Trading): This allows countries to engage in decentralized, bilateral or multilateral trading of carbon credits, known as Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs). If one country overachieves its NDC, it can sell the excess reductions to another country to count toward its own targets, provided strict accounting (corresponding adjustments) is applied.
Article 6.4 (Global Mechanism): This creates a centralized, UN-supervised system known as the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM). It serves as the successor to the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), allowing public and private entities to trade highly regulated emissions reductions (A6.4ERs) while promoting sustainable development in host countries.
What is Next?
With the third generation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs 3.0) already submitted, the global community has laid out its targets for 2035. However, setting targets is only the first hurdle.
The immediate next steps focus on implementation, scrutiny, and legal accountability. Using the classification process developed by Elevate Pro-Clima these current NDCs must be systematically evaluated. By classifying these commitments accurately, legal and policy frameworks can shift from simply tracking procedural promises to enforcing substantive, measurable climate action, ensuring states deliver on the obligations necessary to keep the 1.5°C threshold within reach.